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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion

The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."

Call for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."